On the weekly chart we have a very broad higher low which generally leads to a higher high. We have also taken back the 50% retrace of the overall bearish swing as measured from the peak in 2017 to the low in 2018. So it reasons that we at least make an attempt at the previous high if not make a new one.
In addition Bitcoin has garnered interest from hedge funds and larger investors that are adding Bitcoin to their Gold and Treasuries positions which we have been waiting for years to happen. Patience pays off once again.
From a technical perspective we have broken out of the 11,800 resistance level and the current weekly candle is taking out the high (continuation). This is a positive sign from such a major resistance area , but often markets come back to retest these levels. So though I would not mind adding a small position here on the breakout, if you do not own any Bitcoin , the more conservative play (if you already have a position) is to wait for a pullback to retest resistance now support around the 12k area.
This aligns with the shorter term daily chart , and though I believe a swing to 22k is possible over the next 12 – 18 months, it is likely not a straight line. With a break out in play we are looking for pullbacks for shorter term swing trades and also to potentially add to our overall position for a broader move to 32k which may take 2-3-5 years to evolve.
Most do not have the patience to look at the long term. They want instant gratification now, just like all the trolls that for the past 2-3 years have been calling me an idiot for buying the dip. No different than those who said Gold was dead at $1200. I steadily added to my Gold and Silver position, adhering to my strategy of accumulation, and that patience and perseverance has paid off, while those same trolls, are now jumping on the bandwagon, while I am selling into the rally.
Did I time the high perfectly? No, but I am reducing my exposure into rallies, and the same can be said with Bitcoin here, however, I still think there is a lot of room to run and would rather accumulate on the dips, than get anxious and sell at these levels.
In short any pullback into the low 12k’s or under will be an area to slowly add to a current position, any further rally into the upper teens is where I want to start to reduce risk. Does this mean I blow out my holdings? NO, I will simply trim 5% here, 5% there at predetermined levels based on my plan.
Though in the long term, 5-10 years, there is potential for Bitcoin to hit 100k or even 1 Million, do not buy into the hype that it is going to happen over the 12 months. Set reasonable expectations not moon shot hype. Though 20k may trade by the end of the year, I would not count on it.
Over the past couple of years, and amongst the many trolls, we have an average cost of $6851 in Bitcoin . How does that look now? Sure we added at 13k , but we also bought at $4500, and we have positioned ourselves for a broader swing, not listening to the wannabe gurus, but sticking to our plan and strategy for the long term.
While most are still licking the wounds of their alt coin portfolio, we took a losing portfolio full of crap coins, and turned it into a winner. It did not happen overnight, it took a little over 2 years, but we are now in a position to benefit from the bullish momentum and long term swing in Bitcoin . Not that we are gurus, but we stuck with our plan and strategy and were not looking for home runs instead taking base hits when they came.